mohini

25 posts

2022 Off-Season

Warriors Win! Now onto the draft, trades and free agency. Warriors probably don’t need to do a single thing, but I’m sure they’ll make a few moves depending on the offers. I suppose the best news (personnel-wise) for the Dubs going into next season is that even if Wiseman doesn’t play a minute in 22-23 they can afford to keep bringing him along until he’s 100%. Meanwhile …

Something is terribly wrong with the Suns who have no choice but to make at least one big change. Ayton isn’t likely to stay, but it’s still possible. Whether he does or not could setup a great many dominos to fall next, starting with the draft on June 23rd.

https://www.nba.com/draft/2022/draft-board

Jazz … really seems hopeless with the current roster. The good news is that Ainge and Wade are now big time decision makers in Utah. Something big will unquestionably happen, and possibly before the draft. In fact I think it would be stupid to not trade one of their core players (not named Clarkson) to at least try for a high draft pick or a nice young player. Unfortunately, I doubt even Jerami Grant will help much. Regardless, Utah absolutely needs to go into this next season with a different roster.

Christian Wood is now a Maverick. Big time move by Cuban. West is going to be stacked more than it already is, especially if Brunson decides to stay. Now onto signing Brunson, but does he even want to stay?

Apparently the Rockets want to build around Sengun in the middle.

Pels say they’re all in on Zion now. He’s apparently saying something similar, but that doesn’t mean no moves by the Pels this offseason. Looking forward to seeing what David Griffin will try to put together around the talented core of Zion, Ingram and McCollum. McCollum has proven to be a fantastic pickup, and the Pels pass the eye test for would-be 2023 contenders with their skillful and Zion-less challenge vs the Suns in the 2nd round. They need depth, so let’s see where this goes.

Sixers – did they mortgage their future or does Morey have more smooth-operator moves up his sleeve? Hard to see how, but they need more to contend with several teams rising in the East. Does not look good at all for Harden and Embiid in their primes. Is Tobias Harris even a trade possibility? Does anyone else want him badly enough to pay his salary?

Chicago, Minnesota, Cleveland and Charlotte all appear to be off the blocks and running. The Bulls might be all set with their roster, assuming Lonzo is back and fully healthy. If not it’s very hard to see Coby White being the guy in that PG role. Do they make a move to give backup to Ball? Re. Cavs, is this the year Kevin Love moves on? Seems like it’s time to get more young and fresh blood in the lineup, and a lot of veteran teams could use Love … at a discount if possible. Wolves need one more piece and they may become the hardest offense to stop. Well … need to get by the Warriors in that dept first, and for that to happen D’Angelo Russell must go. However, as always seems to be the case at this time of year there’s no reason to expect the Wolves to make intelligent moves. It’s just so obvious though: Russell needs to go! Good reason to assume they won’t even consider it, and for me to place a bet down that they don’t. Charlotte showed signs of a young core coming together at the end of last season. They need some size, and they should be able to get that.

Is this the offseason when Beal finally puts his DC loyalty aside and signs elsewhere? Seems doubtful, hence this comment stuck down here instead of up top joining the FA headliners Ayton & Brunson.

Pacers would be all set if they didn’t lose their versatile Big Man. They could certainly use Ayton. Turner and Hield to the Suns? If Hield is a playmaker I’d expect the Suns to take a good long look at that possibility.

Lots and lots of other things coming up. Starting with OKC and their massive trove of picks and schemes. No way in hell to know what Presti will do. Might say the same about Houston, but they’ve already started the show with the Christian Woods move. We stay tuned to see what comes out of their magic hats. Portland? Something needs to happen, and it seems they’ve set themselves up for this offseason Lillard or no-Lillard. Raptors might be only one player away from jumping back into the fray. Lots of talent that can be moved at the right price. Could be interesting. Sacramento is now building around the Fox-Sabonis-Mitchell core. It’s a nice core, and maybe Fox just needs more heady wings to trust (so he doesn’t hog the ball so much). Still young enough. Time for Divac to do something smart. Knicks must make moves, but who frickin knows. What a mess.

Like the Warriors some teams really don’t need to do much. Bucks, Grizz, Clippers, Celtics and maybe the Heat? No clue what the Nuggets need if anything. Depends entirely on what is known about the health of Murray and MPJ.

Detroit and Orlando are in excellent position as young teams with no pressure to do anything but add excellent young pieces to their sound if not solid young cores. Jerami Grant may or may not move on. There’s really no hurry for that to happen but I’m sure there’s some pressure coming from somewhere to at least make Pistons consider what are sure to be excellent offers.

Nets? Well … really hinges on everything we don’t know about Simmons. Lakers – why bother even going there unless someone smart realizes that either LeBron or Davis must go. I just don’t want to think about it any more.

Personally I’m impressed with Orlando and would be surprised to see them make a single mistake this offseason. With the first pick in the draft …

?



2022 NBA Playoffs

The 2022 NBA playoffs begin Sat Apr 16. First round matchups are as follows …

East:
(1) Heat vs. (8) Hawks
(2) Celtics vs. (7) Nets
(3) Bucks vs. (6) Bulls
(4) 76ers vs. (5) Raptors
 
West:
(1) Suns vs. (8) Pelicans
(2) Grizzlies vs. (7) Wolves
(3) Warriors vs. (6) Nuggets
(4) Mavericks vs (5) Jazz
 
One week in the playoffs are shaping up as follows with these being the top stories …
 
1. Booker has a hamstring pull putting the Suns’s first round hopes to the test just as the 8th place Pelicans surge without Zion suited up. Pelicans have played outstanding defense in their first 2 games vs. Suns, and between McCollum and Ingram there appears to be scoring when they need it as well. Right now (before the 3rd game) this series is almost a toss up as long as Booker is out. The Suns should still have the edge, because of depth and overall talent especially in the middle.
 
2. Nets are losing 0-2 to the Celtics who have looked scary-good defensively in their first 2 games in Boston. Nets have had their chances though, with Kyrie doing his thing and Drummond looking like an immovable force down low when he’s in. But KD hasn’t shot well, and it’s clear that Boston is the reason for that. Even he says so! The series comes to Brooklyn for the 3rd game however and Simmons is expected to suit up for his first game after that. Regardless, the Celtics look incredible and will be very hard to beat. Nets are one team that can do it though. Must watch TV!
 
3. The Wolves can score as well as any team in the NBA. It’s early, and that statement is only true in theory right now but it’s already clear that playing the Wolves well defensively may not make a bit of difference if they can score in bunches the way that they have. And they defend too! Still, they’re young and make mistakes but it appears they have what’s needed to make this first series close vs. Grizzlies who haven’t quite figured them out yet even with the series in the Grizz favor 2-1 so far.
 
4. Tyrese Maxey has arrived. He’s arguably the Sixers best player right now, and not because Embiid has played poorly but rather because Maxey has been so active at both ends he’s dictating how the games have gone so far. Scottie Barnes has been out for 2 games however, and the Raptors have shown signs of life. However, between Harden’s assisting and everyone else kicking in at both ends the Sixers are seemingly on their way to the 2nd round.
 
5. Jalen Brunson is playing outstanding ball and leading the Mavs against the Jazz with Doncic out. Mavs look deep, and it’s especially impressive that they can beat a team with a huge rebounder/shot blocker/defender in Gobert. Dinwiddie has been impressive as well. Doncic expected back soon from his short time out, but he may not be needed at all until the second round.
 
6. Warriors are playing exactly as they should be playing vs. Nuggets and exactly as one might expect if they had been watching all season. That’s why I have them at #6 here: it’s no surprise that Poole has improved after playing all season. It’s no surprise that Green is running the offense as well as he did earlier in the season. Curry is also playing as expected albeit off the bench now that Poole has played so well in the starting lineup. MAYBE Klay Thompson’s shooting % is a surprise but it shouldn’t be. Klay is being Klay.
 
7. Chicago has shown some life vs the Bucks and has made that series exciting, but even with Middleton out for several games with an MCL sprain it shouldn’t keep the Bucks from moving onto the 2nd round in 6 games tops. Portis had an eye injury that took him out of the loss two days ago, but he’s due back which is big while Middleton sits out the rest of the series.
 
8. Capela was injured prior to the playoffs beginning, but with Miami hitting on all cylinders I don’t see how it matters. The Heat are incredibly deep and have played well at both ends. Capela *might* be back before the end of the series, so we’ll see then if he can make a difference. In any case Butler could be mentioned as the current “best player in the NBA” right now, but until he shows that he can put up huge numbers consistently I’ll leave him off the list. Butler has scored 96 points on 55%+ FG in their 3-0 series vs. Hawks.

2021-22 Season

The top stories rolling into the new season …

Kyrie may or may not play this year – the latest reason having something to with (paraphrasing) “getting the vaccine or not is about being true to yourself”, or something like that, but it’s really not possible to know for sure. He probably will play, but right now by NYC mandate he can’t play in NYC. Regardless he’s made it clear that he’ll just up-n-quit if the Nets try to trade him and KD says he’s backing his friend and won’t allow a trade. Meanwhile KD has been playing at an incredible level consistently through end of season last year, the playoffs and the Olympics. While it’s almost impossible to say who’s the best in the league going in KD has to be at least tied for first, and with Harden being just as good on any given night, a good if not great supporting cast and excellent coaching and management, the Nets are an easy pick for Eastern Conference Finals action next summer.

Giannis somehow became a better player in the finals series vs. the Suns. He wasn’t that player in the first 2 games of that series, but afterward he became perhaps the most dominant player in the playoffs that the league has ever seen. The stuff of legend. LeBron, Russell, Jordan, Kareem, Oscar, Wilt, Bird … Giannis was as good or better for at least 3 out of the final 4 games and arguably played the best game of any player ever in the final win over Phoenix. Can he sustain that improvement? It’s clear he has the drive, but will it be needed to win games and stay atop the East with an also-improved Jrue Holiday and a seemingly more assertive Kris Middleton? Bucks lost Tucker to FA, but other players stepped up for them in the playoffs and also seem improved. How good will they be this season? We’re going to find out – COVID isn’t as likely to dominate results throughout the season this year and it seems very unlikely to affect the 2022 playoffs. But the Bucks aren’t favorites to win it all going in … that billing goes to the Lakers and Nets. As if Giannis needed more motivation to get back to the finals again.

Steph Curry didn’t win MVP last year, but he could have and likely would have if the ball bounced the Warriors’ way once or twice more last year. He was phenomenal, and every bit deserving of the best player in the league status right there with the others on that short list. How good will the Warriors be when a healthy Wiseman suits up to play alongside rookies Kuminga and Moody (both will be works in progress)? Looney will continue his improving swing upward, Poole has to be the most underrated in the league. The Warriors are hungry and ready to get back to the finals, and can do just that even without Klay who’s expected back later this season.

Jokic … MVP who did it after losing weight and developing a stronger work ethic last year. How much better can he get? No one knows, but if he gets better at both ends he’s right there with the others above as best in the league. Even so, the Nuggets have holes to plug with a sort of revolving lineup with their smaller guards and wings and Murray out indefinitely with the ACL tear. They’ll need more than just MPJ and Barton coming to the rescue. Hard to see where they’ll get it early on.

Kawhi had surgery for the partial ACL tear and will be out for at least half the season, but the Clipps were a force and arguably the best team in the West before he went out in the playoffs. Even then Reggie Jackson and the rest almost got by the Suns in the playoffs. No reason to count out the Clippers and in fact maybe the best bet to come out of the West or at least right there with a handful of other teams.

LeBron has a problem this year, or maybe several of them. He may still be the best player in the league right there with KD and Steph and Giannis and Jokic and Embiid, but what does Westbrook actually do for his chances to go for another title? And beyond that all the older guys on the roster? Early on it’s very hard to see why the Lakers would be favored to win it all this year, but then … he *is* LeBron so foolish to not include him atop this list.

Embiid has a lot to prove this year. If he had played just a few more games he would likely have been named MVP. Instead Jokic was so consistent and reliable that he was the more deserving. Now Embiid gets to run it back without Ben Simmons who almost certainly won’t be part of a Sixers playoff season this time. But who will be for that matter? Jury is still out as the Sixers shore up their roster with Simmons being disruptive early on.

Are the Suns for real? No one expected them to be that good last year. CP3 is another year older, but Ayton and Booker should be in their primes. It’s almost impossible to tell how well they’ll do this year, but they should be better with their young guys all improving at both ends. Ayton especially who could be an all star this year or will at least get votes. Cam Johnson has already shown signs of being among the most consistent and reliable scorers in the league albeit on fewer shots than most others of that ilk, but is Mikal Bridges the right guy for them as their ironman yet undersized defensive wing? The Suns have lacked playmaking and size, and Bridges doesn’t help at all in those departments. It’s hard to see how he’ll be able to anchor the defense alongside Ayton with the likes of LeBron or Kawhi or George backing him down. The good news is that the Suns won’t need to worry about Giannis or KD until the finals should they get there.

The Jazz … so hard to say how good they are since Mitchell wasn’t near 100% in the playoffs last year. They showed signed of brilliance going in though, and it seemed Mitchell’s role had changed somewhat as Clarkson and Conley took over the playmaking and some of the scoring. Jazz are deep and loaded and healthy and have plenty to prove. No one will be surprised to see them atop the West again this year.

The Heat … they’re also stacked with talent and now have Kyle Lowry at the helm adding both toughness and and a winner to the composition. Will this be the year for Tyler Herro to be a consistent force? I doubt anyone will take them lightly, as they should be a top 4 defensive team that can score. A work in progress at least for the first part of the season, but a lot of reasons to be optimistic about their chances this year. Only problem: Nets, Bucks and Sixers … can the Heat somehow get past them en route to the conference finals? Can they get past the Hawks and the Celtics and the Knicks for that matter? What about the Bulls who appear to be stacked and ready for a deep playoff run if they can come together quickly.

The East looks great. At least on paper going in.

And then there’s the rest of the league where there’s simply way too much to comment on here without getting too speculative. Suffice to say there are a handful of teams that could rise to the top and few would be surprised to see it as the league is now absolutely loaded with young talent almost across the board: Zion, Morant, LaMelo, Edwards, Trae, Doncic, Tatum. And will any of the rookies help to push their teams into the playoffs? Really hard to see who and which team that might be early on, although three teams with zero expectation for success yet great potential to spoil the fun for others are the Rockets, Pistons and Thunder. That’s how deep the league is now with most teams having multiple talents able to dominate on any given night. There are only a few exceptions, but hard to see which ones early on.

2021 Off-Season

JA:

So Suns didn’t draft Haliburton. No one will care if they sign Kawhi;-)

 

AW:

That’s some wishful thinking. LOL! Suns are already over the cap, so unless Kawhi is willing to sign for the midlevel exception or a sign-and-trade deal is made–which would mean trading either Paul or Booker or everybody on the team not named Paul, Booker, or Ayton–it ain’t gonna happen. The Lakers, also over the cap, could trade Kuzma, Caldwell-Pope, and Harrell (plus draft picks) to get Kawhi. If Kawhi wants to stay home in L.A., you can bet that will get explored. The Warriors, who are way over the cap, could trade Wiggins and Wiseman to get Kawhi. Gotta think though that Ballmer ain’t gonna facilitate Kawhi going to one of the Clips’ Pacific Division rivals.

 

AW:

The Blazers have gone the get rid of the coach route. Stotts and the Blazers “mutually” parted ways today. This doesn’t preclude doing a roster makeover too, but I suspect that they will try to add a few pieces and run it back with Dame and CJ.

 

JA:

This is one time that I think management obviously made a mistake. Stotts may very well have been the reason they did so well and had a chance to advance. How is it Stotts fault that Nurkic and Covington just aren’t as good as they need to be? Or that Melo and McCollum simply don’t give them enough to support Lillard and Powell?

They’ll need to trade McCollum and Covington – it’s just so frickin obvious. Powell and Lillard are awesome, and it looks like Anfernee Simons can step into McCollum’s role. McCollum has trade value and could garner them a defensive wing that’s better than Covington at all aspect of the game. Oubre would be better for instance.

It’s a shame that Jerami Grant has chosen to stay in Detroit. A team like Portland really needs him to help get to the next level. Denver kind of lucked out to have replaced him with Aaron Gordon. Suns need Grant to advance. Mavs. Lakers. Celtics. Hot commodity if he was available. Makes me wonder if some of the 2020 draftees will grow into what Grant is now. Patrick Williams and Bey and Okoro have a chance to be that sort of guy. Who else?

 

JA:

assuming jerami grant wants to play with the Suns, and assuming a multiple team trade scenario, is it even possible if it means keeping Booker, Ayton and Johnson? I assume Paul *will* be on the Suns team next year, but if James Jones finds a team that wants Paul and the only way to get Grant is to trade Paul and Bridges in a multi team trade while keeping Book, Ayton, CJ then are there any ways to get that done or is Grant too expensive?

 

AW:

Grant for Bridges, Saric, and Jalen Smith would work salary cap wise. Can’t really use the trade machine right now to figure out a trade that would send Paul to a 3rd team because Paul is untradeable right now until he picks up his option or not.

 

2021 NBA Playoffs

The 2021 NBA playoffs begin May 22nd. First round matchups are as follows …

East:
(1) 76ers vs. (8) Wizards
(2) Nets vs. (7) Celtics
(3) Bucks vs. (6) Heat
(4) Knicks vs. (5) Hawks
 
West:
(1) Jazz vs. (8) Grizzlies
(2) Suns vs. (7) Lakers
(3) Nuggets vs. (6) Trail Blazers
(4) Clippers vs. (5) Mavericks
 
The story ahead of the games might be more unexpected than that of any prior season. Absences and injuries determined much of the season for many teams. Trades, coaching changes and player improvements resulted in leaps forward by the Nets, Suns, Knicks, Bulls and Hornets. Significant injuries will alter playoff hopes for the Celtics, Warriors and Nuggets as for each of them one of their stars won’t be available for the games which follow.
 
Denver’s star put the league on notice, and three of the greatest teamed up on the Nets. The Bucks and Sixers shored up their defenses and look to battle whatever offense comes at them. The Clippers added Rondo giving them the solid experienced leader and crafty penetrator-disher they needed to be less predictable offensively. The Warriors without Klay were led by Curry who had arguably his best season. They will play the hobbled but apparently playoff ready Lakers in a play-in to determine the 7th seed in the West. In some odd sort of symmetric way, the Wizards with Westbrook playing perhaps is best ball ever will face the hobbled Celtics in a play-in to determine the 7th seed in the East.
 
The Nets are the favorites going in, partially because the Lakers haven’t proven healthy yet. Harden will be at the Nets helm. He hasn’t played much this season due to an apparent hamstring issue, but when he has played he was masterful and consistent and MVP worthy. Durant seems to magically be the same player he was prior to the Achilles rupture, and Kyrie has played with flashes of brilliance and efficiency. If all three are healthy, this season may be the first where a champion is decided by excellent offense and below-average defense winning simply because the offense is more efficient than any prior. It’s possible, but the defenses they’ll face in the Sixers and Bucks are outstanding and whatever team comes out of the West will get there largely because of their all around games including excellent defense.
 
In their final games the Lakers look ready, but the only way to know will be to watch them in the first round assuming they can win one of their next two play-in games. We wait and see. Meanwhile Denver looks to be a Western Conference Finals contender led by Jokic’s consistent production and presence at both ends, MPJ’s outstanding improvement, Aaron Gordon’s all around game and plenty of depth at the other positions even with Murray out. 
 
Philly by virtue of outstanding defensive effort, talent, coaching and size will be a threat against any team, but always with the caveat that Embiid needs to show some consistency. Even so, the Sixers have shown huge improvements largely due to the surprising play of Thybulle and rookie surprise Tyrese Maxey. If healthy Sixers are deep and talented and complete, even if they aren’t the best shooting team in the league. If Embiid chooses to play big then Embiid will probably play big leaving opponents with no choice but to figure out the defense in at least 4 games per series.
 
The Bucks have added Jrue who has shown to be the missing piece in the starting lineup, but the Bucks look thin as DiVincenzo has apparently plateaued leaving them at a scoring and size disadvantage when he’s on the court. It may be a simple as stating that the Bucks are one shooter short of contending. That is, assuming their shooters aren’t good enough. Middleton certainly can be, and maybe that’s what it will take to get to the conference finals.
 
The Suns and Knicks are easily the biggest surprises this season and possibly for similar reasons: both teams have leaders in Paul and Randle that control the game offensively in several ways which involve teammates. both teams have been coached to enforce tight structure which leads to excellent team and perimeter defense. But the Suns have a different look than most teams, in that the idea every game is to out-execute and out-efficient the opponent at both ends while giving Booker enough rope to either quickly pull them ahead or to hang himself when trying. As Paul has had a consistent and MVP like season at both ends of the court, and the team makeup is built for consistency it will be up to Booker to decide how far they can go. The Knicks have a different look that isn’t quite as clear. No one knows what Randle’s ceiling is yet, nor how their younger players will show up. They look ready however, and there’s no reason to count them out versus anyone.
 
Utah may be the biggest question mark going in. Mitchell will play, but no one can know if he’s ready after a significant ankle injury. Regardless, Jazz have the best record in the league, the best defensive center, one of the best off the bench in Clarkson and outstanding shooting from everywhere in the half court. Mitchell at his best can get them to the conference finals. They’ll need him to be at his best, because the rest of the West will be too good in a 7 game series otherwise.

2020-2021 Regular Season

Season starts Tuesday December 22nd. Abbreviated to 72 games due to COVID-19 pandemic.

Top stories going in …

  • Brooklyn Nets start off fresh with an overhaul: healthy Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving at the helm. Steve Nash coaching with Mike D’Antoni as his assistant.
  • Bucks add Jrue Holiday in trade for Bledsoe and George Hill
  • Lakers come off a championship losing Rajon Rondo, Danny Green & Dwight Howard and adding up Montrezl Harrell, Dennis Shroeder and Marc Gasol
  • Warriors lose Klay Thompson to an achilles tear, but pickup James Wiseman #2 overall in the 2020 draft. Kelly Oubre joins Wiggins on the wing.
  • Clippers lose Harrell and Shamet and add Ibaka and Luke Kennard. Doc Rivers released. Ty Lue replaces him as head coach. Chauncey Billups assistant.
  • Sixers have new coach and GM in Doc Rivers and Daryl Morey respectively.
  • Houston trades Westbrook to Wizards for John Wall. Add Christian Wood and new coach Stephen Silas
  • Suns add Chris Paul in trade involving Oubre.
  • Atlanta adds Okongwu from draft and Bogdan Bogdanovic, Rondo and Galinari in free agency.

2020 NBA Draft and Free Agency

Is the 2020 draft pool weaker than years past or stronger? Why are people so sure there aren’t several gems at the top of this class?

With COVID shortening the college season and killing the tourney, and with sports and travel being shut down for months how can even the best talent scouts be sure about what this draft will bring? Specifically, where is the objective thinking that places LaMelo Ball above guys like Advija or other international prospects. How can anyone be so sure Anthony Edwards is a better #1 than say Obi Toppin? Same question even if a GM is trying to choose best player instead of choosing based solely on need.

So many unknowns, but it’s probably a good guess that the guys who know how to find talent are going to succeed even if picking out of the lottery. How will that influence Minnesota and Golden State with their #1 & 2 picks respectively? If everyone agrees those teams should trade their picks then why would a team (like Phoenix just as an example) trade their #10 pick for #2 if there’s a good chance they can get someone similar to an Obi Toppin at #10?

Would be great to know which teams have scouts that defied their respective lockdowns and traveled around meeting with players anyhow. And those players having plenty of time to meet and workout etc etc ..

Unpredictable may be the best word to describe what comes out of this draft. We may not know for a couple years.

The 2020 NBA Playoffs

The 202 NBA playoffs begin Monday Aug 17th in Orlando, Florida. First round matchups are as follows …

East:
(1) Bucks vs. (8) Magic
(2) Raptors vs. (7) Nets
(3) Celtics vs. (6) 76ers
(4) Pacers vs. (5) Miami

West:
(1) Lakers vs. (8) Blazers
(2) Clippers vs. (7) Mavericks
(3) Nuggets vs. (6) Jazz
(4) Rockets vs. (5) Thunder


Looking at this by series, maybe most appropriate to start with the reigning champion Raptors …

While the near-sighted view might put the Nuggets and Thunder into the category of “most pleasant surprise”, that prize goes to the Raptors who have been doing it all season long. And while the Thunder might be coming together team-wise at the right time, it’s the Raptors that have been there since the beginning of the season. The roles are well defined. Everyone plays defense on every play, and the switching and paint protection is as swift and accurate as any team in the playoffs. Their best player (Siakem) is an unselfish passing and rebounding scorer/defender who allows other players (all scorers) to touch the ball often enough to make the right decision quickly. A la Warriors and the Spurs before them, no coincidence there. It’s turned Van Vleet into one of the leagues most feared point-per-minute scorers, it’s brought Anunoby into the spotlight as a #1 or #2 option offensively and has resurrected Ibaka’s offensive abilities turning him into a threat and matchup problem for any team when he’s shooting it well. They don’t have Giannis but they do have the better team than the Bucks. They might be even better than last year’s team headed into the playoffs. There shouldn’t be any surprises when they sweep the Nets in the first round. The Nets might win one game, but it won’t be without a lot of raised eyebrows. They’ll need to shut down Toronto’s offense which seems near impossible.
 
Elsewhere, the Blazers face the Lakers in round 1 …

Portland may be the team that benefited the most with the long break in the season. With year-long injuries to Nurkic and Collins, their front court took a big hit for much of the season. On the season, Portland scored 115.1 ppg and gave up 116.2 ppg. In the bubble and with Nurkic and Collins healthy though, Portland’s offense took off, scoring more than 120 ppg in all but two games. Of course Dame was brilliant. Defensively, however, Portland is still giving up a lot of points. It appears it will take their defense longer to coalesce, but with a first round match-up against the Lakers, there may not be enough time for that to happen.
 
On the Lakers side, the long layoff may have been a blessing in disguise. LBJ and AD both averaged more than 34 mpg on the season. Now rested for the playoffs and any nagging injuries healed up, they should be ready to go. They have some question marks though. Avery Bradley opted out of the restart and Rajon Rondo is injured and out for the rest of the season. Both were key contributors to one of the best defenses in the league. The Lake Show went 3-5 in the bubble, but they had little to play for once they wrapped up the top seed early. Still, their defense in the bubble was not nearly as good. They should still get past Portland, but this could be a problem the deeper they go in the playoffs.
 
I expect to see Dame Dollar go off against the Lakers in this series, but it won’t be enough. Nurkic looked good in his return, but facing off against AD will be a bigger challenge. LBJ and AD will likely have to play a lot of minutes, because they are not deep. I see the Lakers winning the series 4-2.
 
Looking at #1 vs. #8 in the East, Bucks vs. Magic…
 
The Magic had one of the best defenses in the league, giving up just 108.3 ppg. The problem is that they scored just 107.3 ppg. Orlando lost SF Jonathan Isaac to an ACL tear during a bubble game. He was probably the best defender on the team and had a team-leading 1.6 spg and 2.3 bpg. That will put a crimp in their defense, which hurts big time when going up against the best offense in the league. Vucevic and Fournier lead the offense, but Aaron Gordon seemed to take a small step back with his shooting.
 
The Bucks went 3-5 in the bubble, but like the Lakers, they had nothing to play for with the #1 seed wrapped up early. They had the best scoring offense in the league and a top 10 defense, resulting in a league best 10 point scoring margin. There is pretty much no stopping the Freak in the paint, so as long as the distance shooting from Middleton, Bledsoe, Matthews, Korver, and Hill stays true to form, they’ll be hard to stop. The Bucks enter the playoffs at full strength.
 
If this was a normal season, I might give the Magic a chance to win one game at home. Even though all the games are in Orlando, they won’t have a home crowd cheering them on. I see the Bucks mopping the floor with the Magic and winning the series 4-0.
 
Moving on to the second match-up in the West, #2 Clippers vs. #7 Mavericks.
 
The Mavericks played poorly in the bubble (3-5 record), except for Luka of course. Luka averaged 30 ppg, 10 rpg, and 9.7 apg despite playing just 13 minutes in the final bubble game. However, outside of Luka and Porzingis, the Mavs don’t get consistent games from anyone else. Against a deep team like the Clippers, they probably don’t stand much chance.
 
The Clippers only went 4-4 in the bubble, but they didn’t have much to play for with their spot locked up early enough. They also had various players miss games because of quarantine, minor injuries, or rest. Kawhi & PG are one of the top duos in the league, perhaps better than LBJ/AD because of how well they play defense. Kawhi is also the very definition of clutch. Consider the bubble to just be a warm-up for the Clips with the real thing to begin in the playoffs.
 
The Mavs don’t have enough depth to compete with the Clippers. The Clips may be missing a few players for the first game or two, so I can see the Mavs winning a game or two, but that is as far as it gets. Figure the Clippers to win the series 4 games to 1.
 
While the Clippers might be the most talent-laden team, the Nuggets aren’t too far behind them. More importantly, the amount of fresh talent coming off the bench allows the Nuggets to maintain their frenetic offensive pace while giving both Jokic and Murray time to rest. And now with Michael Porter Jr. rising to the level of a superstar, both Jokic and Murray should have more room to operate in order to do what the Nuggets do as well as any team: get high percentage shots while forcing defenses away from their game plan(s). But this is the Jokic show regardless – he looks nimble and energetic after the 25 lb weight loss and conditioning. For the first time in his career Jokic appears driven to perform at the highest level, and that means faster footwork that was already the best in the league. Expect the Nuggets to create matchup nightmares for all teams they face – opponents will likely be getting in foul trouble early and often starting with their first round opponent in the Jazz. It’ll be interesting to see how the refs call the contact down low in this series, as Gobert is not only the best in the business protecting the paint he’s also been the beneficiary of many-an-unblown whistle in 2019-2020.
 
However, as odd as it may seem, if the Nuggets face the Clippers in the second round they’ll be outmanned. Even if Jokic abuses (or just neutralizes) Harrell for most of the series, it will likely come at the expense of fast break opportunities for Kawhi and company who, better than any other team, dictate ball movement and pace at both ends of the court. Regardless, that series if it happens won’t likely be about shot selection or even foul trouble but rather FG%. Maybe that seems obvious, but with both teams able to get their shots and defend extremely well on average, that series (if it happens) may simply come down to which team has more guys hitting their well-selected shots.
 
The Rockets open up against the Thunder. While Harden wouldn’t surprise anyone by getting straight back to his MVP form, that’s not going to be what decides the series. Before the recent injury to Westbrook (quad) the Thunder was already playing at a higher level at both ends, and with Chris Paul’s squad coming together in all ways at both ends this isn’t the matchup D’Antoni wants in the first round. The first game of the series will be revealing, as it shouldn’t be close with Houston having no way to replace the impact of a sitting Westbrook. Against almost any other team the Rockets could be expected to compete on scrap and energy alone, but that’s also where the Thunder lives. Unless Westbrook can return in the second and third games to play big minutes at his usual off-the-charts level, the Thunder will likely win the series because of the poise and teamwork they’ve displayed and improved upon all season long.
 
The 3-6 matchup in the East was supposed to be a good one. The Celtics and the 76ers were both conference semifinalists last year, both have fairly young squads that could be expected to improve this year and both brought in new studs–Al Horford in Philly and Kemba Walker in Boston. This series should have been a great rumble. Then it fell apart for the Sixers. Budding superstar Ben Simmons went down with a knee injury and is out for the season. Superstud Joel Embiid has been battling nagging ankle and hand injuries. They managed a 4-4 record in the bubble, but 3 of the wins were against non-playoff teams and the 4th was against a Westbrook-less Rockets team that also wasn’t letting any starter play more than 24 minutes in the final bubble game. Against teams fighting for the playoffs or playoff-bound, the Sixers couldn’t manage a win. The loss of Simmons will be virtually impossible to overcome.
 
On the Celtics side, they went 5-3 in the bubble and one of those losses was in the last game when they rested all their starters. Those starters form one of the best starting groups in the league. They’ve got 3 starters averaging better than 20 ppg, 3 averaging better than 4 apg, 3 averaging better than 6 rpg, and 3 averaging better than 1 spg. Jayson Tatum made a big jump toward superstar status this year and is still just 21 years old. Jaylen Brown did too and he’s just 23 years old. Gordon Hayward finally got healthy after two lost years and started to look like himself again. Kemba Walker replacing Kyrie Irving at PG looked like a much better team fit. When you get past the starters though, the Celtics don’t have a great bench. They also lack a solid inside presence. If Embiid is healthy enough, he should have big games against the Celtics. It won’t be enough though. No Simmons makes this an easy series for the Celts. We’ll give the Sixers one game. Boston likely to prevail 4 games to 1.
 
Finally, we come to the Pacers and Heat, the 4 and 5 seeds in the East. Coincidentally, they played each other in the final bubble game with the seeding up in the air and…neither team cared. Both teams rested their stars and the Pacers scrubs beat the Heat scrubs for the 4th seed. Unfortunately–for the Pacers–they played each other two games earlier at full strength and the Heat pasted the Pacers by 22 points. The Pacers are hamstrung with Sabonis’ injury and it is unclear if and when he might be back. He averaged almost twice as many rebounds as anybody else on the team. That will be hard to replace. And while the long layoff gave Oladipo additional time to heal, he still doesn’t look like he is completely back. The Pacers are deep though, going nine deep of players averaging 20+ minutes per game and 7 of them being double-digit scorers.
 
As deep as the Pacers are, the Heat are even deeper. 10 players average 20+ minutes per game with 8 of them going off for double digits in scoring. Then there’s the Jimmy “I don’t suffer fools” Butler factor. It appears that Butler found a team this year that were all on the same championship mentality page, unlike last year’s 76ers. Pat Riley/Eric Spoelstra and Jimmy Butler are a good fit of player to management. Butler appears to have brought out the best from Bam Adebayo, turning him from a bench player to an All-Star. There’s just no way that Butler doesn’t get out of the 1st round. The Heat are a dark horse in the East and won’t have a problem with a Sabonis-less Pacers. At best, the Pacers win 2 games in this series.

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